What's the latest?
In this market wrap we’re going to drill down into what we’ve seen in our local property market during the first quarter of 2019. Focusing on Chelmer through to Oxley, the Centenary suburbs and Indooroopilly, west to Bellbowrie and Moggill, including Fig Tree Pocket and Chapel Hill.
We’re going to look at what’s happening in Melbourne and Sydney and contrast their market movements to our own, whilst looking forward to see what we can expect during the rest of 2019. Then, we get a little bit political with the proposed changes to negative gearing. So, if this sounds interesting to you, please continue reading and enjoy.
Is the doom and gloom real?
This market wrap is going to be a little different because like you, we’re seeing the various media outlets peddle all kinds of doom and gloom but we’re simply not seeing those outcomes on the ground. The biggest struggle we have at the moment is finding homes to sell. Given all of this negative talk, we’re noticing sellers hold off and waiting for the market to improve. On the contrary, the stats are showing we’re still in a good market here in Brisbane.
As an office, during the first quarter of this year we’ve sold over 70 homes. That’s over one per day, every business day for the first 3 months of the year. Right now, buyers are buying, sellers are selling and prices are holding steady.
Here's the reasearch...
We’ve done our research and looked into why there’s currently so much negative talk surrounding the Brisbane property market. Evidently it seems to all relate back to Sydney and Melbourne. Here in Australia, there is no overarching “Australian property market”, as the property market is dramatically different depending on the State, Territory, city or regional area that you’re in. Australia is therefore essentially a collection of many different housing markets.
So, what’s happening in Sydney and Melbourne that is having such an adverse effect up here on the reputation of Brisbane’s property market? Well, over the past 3 months Melbourne has seen a decrease of 4.1%, and they’re down a total of 9.6% since their peak back in November of 2017. Sydney similarly has experienced a down turn of 4.1% over the 3-month period but has declined a total of 13.2% since their peak in July 2017.
But what about Brisbane?
Contrastively, Brisbane have only seen a slight ease over the past 3 months of just 0.7%, meaning we’re only marginally below our peak in April 2018. Here, our economy is being reinforced by projects such Queen’s Wharf, TradeCoast, Cross River Rail, the second airport runway and several other major projects.
More than that, the jobs growth from those projects hasn’t even been felt yet and won’t kick off for a few more years, giving us a positive outlook for a reinvigorated market into the future. So, what is actually going on in our local property market right now? Well, the stats presented below clearly show that the news is all good for our local area. Lots of homes are selling and prices are holding strong.
Hyper local... have a look at your suburb:
- Chelmer median based on 40 sales over the past 12 months is $950,000, this has increased by 18.8% over the past 5 years.
- Graceville median based on 75 sales over the past 12 months is $945,000, this has increased by 37.5% over the past 5 years
- Sherwood median based on 81 sales over the past 12 months is $790,000, this has increased by 16.9% over the past 5 years
- Corinda median based on 59 sales over the past 12 months is $745,000, this has increased by 41.5% over the past 5 years
- Oxley median based on 131 sales over the last 12 months is $570,000, this has increased by 25.3% over the past 5 years
- Indooroopilly median based on 125 sales over the last 12 months is $800,000, his has increased by 14.3% over the past 5 years
- Fig Tree Pocket median based on 49 sales over the last 12 months is $950,000, this has increased by 8.6% over the past 5 years
- St Lucia median based on 64 sales over the last 12 months is $1,085,000, this has increased by 28.8% over the past 5 years
- Chapel Hill median based on 120 sales over the last 12 months is $827,500, this has increased by 25.4% over the past 5 years
- Kenmore median based on 146 sales over the last 12 months is $731,250, this has increased by 28.3% over the past 5 years
- Bellbowrie median based on 69 sales over the last 12 months is $555,000, this has increased by 18.8% over the past 5 years
- Moggill median based on 71 sales over the last 12 months is $563,000, this has increased by 11.7% over the past 5 years
- Jindalee median based on 87 sales over the last 12 months is $565,000, this has increased by20.7% over the past 5 years
- River Hills median based on 46 sales over the past 12 months is $536,250, this has increased by 24.7 % over the past 5 years
- Mount Ommaney median based on 25 sales over the last 12 months is $910,000, this has increased by 34.8% over the past 5 years
- Westlake median based on 57 sales over the past 12 months is $749,000, this has increased by 19.8% over the past 5 years
What does the negitive gearing changes really mean?
The only concern that we at Place Graceville have looking forward, without getting too political of course, is the proposed changes to negative gearing. If this goes through, we will see investors leave the market, causing an instant reduction in demand and a consequential fall in prices. More than that, there will be less investors in the market which means fewer rental properties and overall stiffer competition between tenants, pushing up rents.
We all know that for most, the natural life cycle starts by living at home, then move into a share house, then moving into our own rental as we save for our first home in the hopes of hopping onto the property ladder. If rents go up, this will make it even harder for first home buyers to save for a deposit.
Australia has built the property market on private investors and the only way I can see these changes in negative gearing working is if Australia spends billions on public housing with a long-term view of moving away from the current status quo. There have been a ton of different reports all showing different stats, however one message remains consistent; if Labor goes through with the proposed changes, rents will go up and prices will fall.
What does that all mean?
All in all, the news is positive here in Brisbane, we still have a healthy level of affordability, interstate migration and a good balance of local and interstate investors. We are expecting 2019 to offer stability and for Brisbane to come out as Australia’s leading property market.
If we can help with anything property related, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with one of my hard working and dedicated team members on 3379 4311